Global Biofuel Output Will Rise 70 Percent by 2030
Expanded use of food-based feedstocks for energy will significantly increase global land demand for production.
Updated on Sept. 22, 2026 in Organic Food
Live Poll
Should nations prioritize biofuel production even if it risks higher food prices for consumers?
Global biofuel production is projected to grow by 70 percent between 2025 and 2030 as nations pursue energy security. This shift follows significant increases in fossil fuel and food commodity prices tied to the Iran war.
Why it matters
The transition to biofuels links energy policy directly to food costs, as countries increasingly dedicate crops like corn and sugar to fuel production. This competition for resources creates potential long-term price volatility for staple foods.
A report from Chatham House and the Forest Stewardship Council projects a 70 percent surge in global biofuel output by 2030 compared to 2025. This expansion requires an additional 36 million hectares of land for feedstocks, more than doubling the amount used in 2023.
The players
Chatham House
A London-based independent policy institute focused on international affairs and resource security.
Forest Stewardship Council
An international non-profit organization that sets standards for responsible forest and land management.
The details
Nations are increasing blending mandates for biofuels to mitigate high crude oil costs, which have risen by nearly 40 percent since the Iran war began. Because biofuels are derived from organic feedstocks like corn and sugar, this increased demand has contributed to a 20 percent rise in those commodity prices. To reach production targets, the study indicates global land use must expand significantly to accommodate feedstock cultivation.
Timeline
Late February 2026: The Iran war began, triggering energy market shifts.
2023: Baseline year for land use measurement.
2025: Baseline year for global biofuel output calculations.
September 22, 2026: Study findings were published.
2030: Projected target year for the 70 percent output increase.
Health Landscape
This study documents a shift in how geopolitical instability, such as the Iran war, accelerates the diversion of organic food crops into the global energy supply. It highlights an emerging conflict between renewable energy mandates and the availability of food-based resources for the public.
Rising prices for basic staples like corn and sugar may influence the long-term affordability of organic food options in your grocery aisles. If you rely on specific organic staples for your diet, monitor food inflation trends and discuss how price shifts might affect your nutritional planning with your doctor or a registered dietitian.
The takeaway
The expansion of biofuel production links energy markets more tightly to the cost of your daily food staples. Keep track of rising food prices, as these may reflect the shifting competition between fuel production and food supplies.
Further reading
Learn more about the impact of agricultural practices on global supply in our guide to Organic Food.
Live Poll
Should nations prioritize biofuel production even if it risks higher food prices for consumers?
